COVID-19, The Economy And Politics
WRITTEN BY JP LANDMAN (POLITICAL ANALYST) About the author: JP Landman is an independent political and economic analyst who consults to Nedgroup Private Wealth
April 22, 2020
WRITTEN BY JP LANDMAN (POLITICAL ANALYST) About the author: JP Landman is an independent political and economic analyst who consults to Nedgroup Private Wealth
There has been much speculation for some time that South Africa could be downgraded by Moody’s to sub-investment grade or “junk” and this has now at long last occurred as at the end of March. The Moody’s rating has been notable in that it is the only one of the three major ratings agencies that had not yet downgraded SA’s foreign rating.
Gone are the days when the effects of Brexit and load-shedding made for the most prominent watercooler conversations. Welcome the COVID-19 media era, where ‘watercooler conversations’ happen online, and crisis and fear-gripping headlines are the new order of the day. Indeed, we live in remarkable times where a new chapter in history is unfolding before our eyes, bringing with it a unique set of challenges.
On Thursday the 19th of March, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Lesetja Kganyago, announced a reduction in South Africa’s repo rate by 1% from a level of 6.25% to 5.25%. The repo rate is the interest rate at which the central bank lends to other commercial banks. This significant move from the central bank followed the cut of 0.25% towards the beginning of 2020 and is the first time that the bank has reduced interest rates at consecutive meetings since 2011.
Changing the Constitution to allow for expropriation without compensation has certainly ignited South African politics for 2020. It is worthwhile cutting through the noise.
Just do something’ is the cry now rising from all over South Africa, a plea to the president and government in general to take some action to break the logjam in which the country finds itself. Confidence is low, growth sluggish, and emigration high. It is useful to replay what has been done.
The end of the calendar year often leads to reflection on how one’s investments have performed. Many savers are questioning the wisdom of investing in South African equities after a lean period, especially relative to what must currently feel like the safe haven of cash.
Several economic indicators in South Africa are in the red, headlined by the record-high fuel price breaching R17 per litre. Many South Africans, particularly in the working class, are asking: “when will this end?
Every investor would have heard of equity and listed property referred to as ‘risk assets’. They would also have seen a graph which shows the relative risk of different asset classes, with cash at the bottom as the ‘lowest risk’ and equity at the top as ‘highest risk’. Intuitively, this also makes sense.
Most investors have been disappointed with returns over the past three years. For example, multi-asset portfolios have struggled, with the average SA Multi-Asset High Equity unit trust posting 3.4% per annum over the three years ended March 2018.